COVID-19 Pandemic Risk Assessment: Systematic Review.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic presents the possibility of future large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. In response, we conducted a systematic review of COVID-19 pandemic risk assessment to provide insights into countries' pandemic surveillance and preparedness for potential pandemic events in the post-COVID-19 era. Objective: We aim to systematically identify relevant articles and synthesize pandemic risk assessment findings to facilitate government officials and public health experts in crisis planning. Methods: This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines and included over 620,000 records from the World Health Organization COVID-19 Research Database. Articles related to pandemic risk assessment were identified based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Relevant articles were characterized based on study location, variable types, data-visualization techniques, research objectives, and methodologies. Findings were presented using tables and charts. Results: Sixty-two articles satisfying both the inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified. Among the articles, 32.3% focused on local areas, while another 32.3% had a global coverage. Epidemic data were the most commonly used variables (74.2% of articles), with over half of them (51.6%) employing two or more variable types. The research objectives covered various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, with risk exposure assessment and identification of risk factors being the most common theme (35.5%). No dominant research methodology for risk assessment emerged from these articles. Conclusion: Our synthesized findings support proactive planning and development of prevention and control measures in anticipation of future public health threats.

Standardized local assortativity in networks and systemic risk in financial markets.

The study of assortativity allows us to understand the heterogeneity of networks and the implication of network resilience. While a global measure has been predominantly used to characterize this network feature, there has been little research to suggest a local coefficient to account for the presence of local (dis)assortative patterns in diversely mixed networks. We build on existing literature and extend the concept of assortativity with the proposal of a standardized scale-independent local coefficient to observe the assortative characteristics of each entity in networks that would otherwise be smoothed out with a global measure. This coefficient provides a lens through which the granular level of details can be observed, as well as capturing possible pattern (dis)formation in dynamic networks. We demonstrate how the standardized local assortative coefficient discovers the presence of (dis)assortative hubs in static networks on a granular level, and how it tracks systemic risk in dynamic financial networks.

A moving-window bayesian network model for assessing systemic risk in financial markets.

Systemic risk refers to the uncertainty that arises due to the breakdown of a financial system. The concept of "too connected to fail" suggests that network connectedness plays an important role in measuring systemic risk. In this paper, we first recover a time series of Bayesian networks for stock returns, which allow the direction of links among stock returns to be formed with Markov properties in directed graphs. We rank the stocks in the time series of Bayesian networks based on the topological orders of the stocks in the learned Bayesian networks and develop an order distance, a new measure with which to assess the changes in the topological orders of the stocks. In an empirical study using stock data from the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we use the order distance to predict the extreme absolute return, which is a proxy of extreme market risks, or a signal of systemic risks, using the LASSO regression model. Our results indicate that the network statistics of the time series of Bayesian networks and the order distance substantially improve the predictability of extreme absolute returns and provide insights into the assessment of systemic risk.

An automatic speech analytics program for digital assessment of stress burden and psychosocial health.

The stress burden generated from family caregiving makes caregivers particularly prone to developing psychosocial health issues; however, with early diagnosis and intervention, disease progression and long-term disability can be prevented. We developed an automatic speech analytics program (ASAP) for the detection of psychosocial health issues based on clients' speech. One hundred Cantonese-speaking family caregivers were recruited with the results suggesting that the ASAP can identify family caregivers with low or high stress burden levels with an accuracy rate of 72%. The findings indicate that digital health technology can be used to assist in the psychosocial health assessment. While the conventional method requires rigorous assessments by specialists with multiple rounds of questioning, the ASAP can provide a cost-effective and immediate initial assessment to identify high levels of stress among family caregivers so they can be referred to social workers and healthcare professionals for further assessments and treatments.

Assessing systemic risk in financial markets using dynamic topic networks.

Systemic risk in financial markets refers to the breakdown of a financial system due to global events, catastrophes, or extreme incidents, leading to huge financial instability and losses. This study proposes a dynamic topic network (DTN) approach that combines topic modelling and network analysis to assess systemic risk in financial markets. We make use of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to semantically analyse news articles, and the extracted topics then serve as input to construct topic similarity networks over time. Our results indicate how connected the topics are so that we can correlate any abnormal behaviours with volatility in the financial markets. With the 2015-2016 stock market selloff and COVID-19 as use cases, our results also suggest that the proposed DTN approach can provide an indication of (a) abnormal movement in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and (b) when the market would gradually begin to recover from such an event. From a practical risk management point of view, this analysis can be carried out on a daily basis when new data come in so that we can make use of the calculated metrics to predict real-time systemic risk in financial markets.

Stochastic actor-oriented modelling of the impact of COVID-19 on financial network evolution.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to tremendous loss of human life and has severe social and economic impacts worldwide. The spread of the disease has also caused dramatic uncertainty in financial markets, especially in the early stages of the pandemic. In this paper, we adopt the stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM) to model dynamic/longitudinal financial networks with the covariates constructed from the network statistics of COVID-19 dynamic pandemic networks. Our findings provide evidence that the transmission risk of the COVID-19, measured in the transformed pandemic risk scores, is a main explanatory factor of financial network connectedness from March to May 2020. The pandemic statistics and transformed pandemic risk scores can give early signs of the intense connectedness of the financial markets in mid-March 2020. We can make use of the SAOM approach to predict possible financial contagion using pandemic network statistics and transformed pandemic risk scores of the COVID-19 and other pandemics.

Antecedents of Consumer Food Waste Reduction Behavior: Psychological and Financial Concerns through the Lens of the Theory of Interpersonal Behavior.

This study sought to investigate the role of consumers' emotional, cognitive, and financial concerns in the development of food waste reduction, reuse, and recycling behavior among restaurant patrons. Food waste in restaurants is a major problem for the food service industry, and it is a growing source of concern in developing countries, where eating out is becoming increasingly popular. A large portion of restaurant food waste in these markets originates from the plates of customers, highlighting the importance of consumer behavior changes in reducing waste. The current study has used a quantitative approach to analyze the impact of anticipated negative emotion of guilt, awareness of consequences, habit, and financial concern on food waste reduction behaviors, i.e., reduce, reuse, and recycle. The study collected 492 responses and data is analyzed for hypotheses testing through Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling. The findings showed that anticipated negative emotions of guilt, awareness of consequences, habit, and financial concern have a significant impact on restaurants' consumer food waste reduction behaviors. Managers, policymakers, and researchers interested in resolving the food waste problem will find the study useful. Other topics discussed include the implications and limitations as well as possible future research directions.

Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality.

Most authors apply the Granger causality-VECM (vector error correction model), and Toda-Yamamoto procedures to investigate the relationships among fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth, though they ignore the group joint effects and nonlinear behaviour among the variables. In order to circumvent the limitations and bridge the gap in the literature, this paper combines cointegration and linear and nonlinear Granger causality in multivariate settings to investigate the long-run equilibrium, short-run impact, and dynamic causality relationships among economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuel consumption in China from 1965-2016. Using the combination of the newly developed econometric techniques, we obtain many novel empirical findings that are useful for policy makers. For example, cointegration and causality analysis imply that increasing CO2 emissions not only leads to immediate economic growth, but also future economic growth, both linearly and nonlinearly. In addition, the findings from cointegration and causality analysis in multivariate settings do not support the argument that reducing CO2 emissions and/or fossil fuel consumption does not lead to a slowdown in economic growth in China. The novel empirical findings are useful for policy makers in relation to fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth. Using the novel findings, governments can make better decisions regarding energy conservation and emission reductions policies without undermining the pace of economic growth in the long run.